(002440) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comment: Dye prices are steadily rising and optimistic about supply and demand continues to optimize

(002440) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comment: Dye prices are steadily rising and optimistic about supply and demand continues to optimize
Benefiting from the increase in the prices of main products, the company’s 2018 net profit grew steadily.We are optimistic that the small-capacity industry in the industry will be gradually cleared by the security incident in northern Jiangsu, and the supply and demand layout will continue to be optimized; the company’s production capacity will expand in an orderly manner and its profitability 北京桑拿会所 will continue to increase.The company’s EPS for 2019-21 is predicted to be 1.68/2.06/2.30 yuan, raise target price to 20 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Net profit has grown steadily in 18 years, and significant cost growth has dragged down 19Q1 results.Benefiting from the rise in main product prices in 18 years, the company achieved revenue of US $ 6.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%; and achieved net profit attributable to mothers12.800 million, ten years + 36%.In 1Q1, due to the increase in raw material prices, the company’s performance was dragged down, and its operating income reached 1.8 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 13%; net profit attributable to mothers was realized2.6 yuan, at least -15%. The impact of the security incident in northern Jiangsu lasts, and the prices of its main products are expected to rise steadily.After the Xiangshui explosion in northern Jiangsu, the prices of m-phenylenediamine and disperse dyes have both increased rapidly.As the downstream printing and dyeing industry’s starting load declines, the off-season of the industry is about to come. We expect the product prices to stabilize in the off-season in May and June. After the coming of the subsequent peak season, the product prices once again welcome growth. The industry’s small capacity is gradually cleared, and the supply and demand pattern continues to be optimized.Dye production capacity will be limited in the future. With the start of environmental protection in northern Jiangsu, some small-scale production capacity will be gradually phased out, and the industry’s supply structure will continue to be optimized. Although the demand side has experienced a short and rapid increase in prices, it has affected downstream demand to a certain extent.However, dyes are just needed for downstream clothing and the cost ratio is extremely low. Against the background of the decline in downstream inventory, demand is expected to pick up again; then the price elasticity of dye products will promote display. The scale of production capacity increased, and profitability increased.The company’s total production capacity is nearly 19 pounds, including 11 for disperse dyes, 6 for reactive dyes, and 2 for other dyes. The sales market share of the products ranks first in the domestic dye market.In May this year, the company’s preliminary reactive dyes project is expected to be put into production, providing a basis for the company’s performance growth and optimistic about the company’s long-term development under the high industry boom. Risk factors: Uncertainty in trade friction; product demand has dropped sharply; the company’s new production capacity has fallen short of expectations. Investment suggestion: As the security incident in northern Jiangsu drives product prices higher than expected, raise the company’s 2019-20-20 net profit forecast to 19.33/23.68 ppm (previous forecast was 15.47/16.97 ppm), plus a return to net motherhood profit forecast for 2021 of 26.45 million, 北京桑拿洗浴保健 corresponding to 1 for 2019-21 EPS.68/2.06/2.30 yuan.Taking into account the long-term performance growth brought by the dye industry to maintain a high business climate and capacity expansion, the company was given 12 times PE in 2019, raised its target price to 20 yuan (the original target price was 16 yuan) and maintained a “buy” rating.

MSCI’s biggest increase in A shares during the year will be fulfilled tomorrow

MSCI’s biggest increase in A shares during the year will be fulfilled tomorrow

Original title: MSCI’s biggest increase in the year A will come into effect tomorrow Source: Securities Daily News reporter Meng Ke On November 8, the international index MSCI announced that the proportion of large-cap stocks will increase from 15% to 20%The 20% ratio is divided for the first time.

This is the third time that MSCI increased its A share weight in May and August this year, and this is the third increase in A share weight during the year.

The promotion of A’s re-launch was officially effective after the close on November 26.

  Suning Financial Institute’s special scientist He Nanye told the Securities Daily reporter that according to the previous two MSCI estimates of the scale of funds brought by the A share re-allocation, MSCI’s three appreciation of A-share weight will bring about US $ 300 billion in overseas growth.This is the largest incremental capital inflow in the year.

  According to CICC ‘s earnings, this MSCI is expected to bring about 250 billion to 300 billion US dollars of incremental funds to the A-share market after the A-share weight increase, which is equivalent to the increase in equity weight in May and August this year.The inflow of funds increased by about 50% to 70%.

  ”Based on the good foundation of the previous two upgrades of the A share redistribution, the capital invested in this A share upgrade will further expand the investment scale and dimensions. This translates into the fact that a stock that has not gone out of the good market in the previous period will gradually be dug out to helpPush the creation of new attractions and attractions stocks.

He Nanye said.

  ”From the perspective of MSCI’s process of continuously increasing the weight of A shares, it has gone through 4 stages, which will have a boost effect on A shares in the short term.

“Zhanshan Securities Chief Economist Li Zhan told the Securities Daily reporter that in stages: On June 1, 2018, A shares were replaced by MSCI for the first time with a replacement factor of 2.

5%, the market has continued to grow for three trading days since then, and a month after the change in the proportion, the net inflow of funds to the north gradually increased to 274.

7.5 billion yuan; On September 1, 2018, the A-share divisor coefficient was increased to 5%. One month after this change, the net inflow of funds from Beijing to the north gradually increased to -7.

6.4 billion yuan; On May 28, 2019, the dividend factor was increased to 10%, and a gradual net inflow of funds to the north was 380 after a change.

14 trillion; On August 27, 2019, the A-share division coefficient was increased to 15%. After a month of change, the net capital of the Northbound Group was converted to 683.

1.3 billion yuan.

  Talking about the MSCI’s increase in A’s equity, one of the boards will benefit, He Nanye believes that from the previous investment funds of the Northbound Capital, overseas funds are more inclined to leading companies with stable profits and abundant cash flows.

In fact, at the end of the year, the capital market’s investment style has changed in the same way as in previous years. Banks, real estate, infrastructure and other stocks have become the focus of institutional allocation.

Therefore, in view of the combination of the two, this time the weight of A shares will be increased, and the excess will focus on computer communications, large consumption, medical health, financial real estate, infrastructure and other stocks. These sections will be replaced first.

  “The MSCI index has increased the investment value of domestic long-term institutional investors, such as the incremental and retirement benefits brought by A. The investment target has a high degree of overlap. Its stock selection standards and investment philosophy will profoundly affect the A-share market and its qualityListed companies are prone to stand out. On the whole, the internationalization and institutionalization of the A-share market will have a relatively long-term impact, which will help the capital market optimize resource allocation and promote the maturity of the A-share market.

Li Zhan said.

  With the continuous injection of overseas funds, the internal capital market should also improve the following reorganizations. Li Zhan said that the reorganization will further promote the deepening 成都桑拿网 reform of the capital market and expand the interconnection of internal capital markets; gradually, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the regulatory system for the A-share marketTo avoid foreign impact on China’s securities market and effectively prevent financial risks.

Zhongxin Pharmaceutical (600329) Interim Review: Rapid Growth of Core Varieties Changes in Performance of US-China Schmidt Affect Performance

Zhongxin Pharmaceutical (600329) Interim Review: Rapid Growth of Core Varieties Changes in Performance of US-China Schmidt Affect Performance

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved an operating income of 35.

34 yuan, an annual increase of 13.

54%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

64%, net profit after returning to the mother after deduction.

25 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.


  Various indicators have returned to high growth, and the endogenous power has a quarterly increase. In the second quarter of 2019, the growth rate of single quarter revenue and net profit attributable to mothers were 18 respectively.

92% and 11.

94%, an increase of 10 over 2019Q1.

36pct and 4.

97pct, performance began to resume rapid growth.

In the first half of the year, Sino-SmithKline achieved operating income12.

5.2 billion (+ 5%), net profit 2.

58 ppm (-25%), resulting in a decline in the company’s recognition of investment income from associates / joint ventures in the first half of the year.

26% to 84.16 million yuan.

The operating profit (operating profit-investment income) contributed by the company’s main business in the first half of the year was 306.74 million yuan, a long-term growth of 24%; gross profit was 15.

33 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

14%, showing that the company’s 杭州夜网 pharmaceutical industry is still in a state of rapid growth.

  The expense ratio was basically stable, and the cash flow improved significantly. The company’s selling expenses were 9.

9.4 billion (+6.

67%), with a sales expense budget of 28.

14%, down 1.

81pct, the overall control of sales expenses is good; management expenses 4.

75%, slightly increased by 0.

68 points; net operating cash flow is 1.

5.7 billion (-26.

37%), mainly due to the increase in salaries and taxes paid to employees.

  Large variety groups continued to increase volume, quick-effect Jiuxin pills increased in volume and price. The company continued to rapidly change its marketing model, activate the market value of key varieties, enhance product market competitiveness, strengthen brand promotion, strengthen cooperation with chain drug store leaders, and develop medium and large chain storesMore than 50.

Among the core varieties, the income of Suxiao Jiuxin Pill increased by 24 per year.

60, the growth rate is the highest level expected; the sales revenue of Shunaoxin drip pills increased by 37.

14%; Qingfei Xiaoyan Pill sales revenue increased by 18 per year.


In the future, the concentration of the conversion pharmacy industry will increase, and the cooperation between brand OTC and brand pharmacies (chain pharmacies) will become closer and closer. There will be chain pharmacies in the part of the price increase.Advantages, OTC market share has gradually improved sustainable profit forecast and investment rating. We believe that the company has ushered in an inflection point in terms of performance and operation.

The ex-factory price of quick-acting Jiuxin Pills has increased, and the second-tier varieties will significantly increase their performance.

The new leader’s new role and national improvement process will also release the company’s performance.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 19/20/21 will be 6, respectively.
3.8 billion, 8.
04 billion and 9.

700,000 yuan, the growth rate is 14% / 26% / 21%, the corresponding EPS is 0.

83 yuan, 1.

05 yuan, 1.

26 yuan, PE is 16X, 13X and 10X.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: Changes in Sales of Quick-Acting Jiuxin Pills; Second-tier Variety Growth Slower Than Expected; Slow Progress in National Progress; Sino-US SKE Performance Changes

Funeng shares (600483) quarterly report comment: combined heat and power plants perform well

Funeng shares (600483) quarterly report comment: combined heat and power plants perform well
Event: Funeng shares release the first quarter report of 2019.  The increase in power generation has helped the company’s revenue growth.In Q1 2019, the company completed 42 power generation.1.6 billion kWh, a six-year increase of 6.38%; 39.9.2 billion kWh, an increase of 5 in ten years.80%.  Power generation has grown steadily. The company realized revenue in the first quarter.40,000 yuan, an increase of 5 in ten years.17%.Since the first quarter of last year was the first merger and acquisition of China Resources Wenzhou, the investment income decreased, and the company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter of 2019.12 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.3%, with an expected average ROE of 1.79%, zero for ten years.Two.  The combined performance of cogeneration is excellent, and wind power generation has a slight decline due to the impact of wind resources.In terms of sectors, the company’s combined heat and power business performed well.In Q1 2019, Hongshan Thermal Power achieved an on-grid power supply of 12.4.2 billion kWh, an increase of 22 per year.6%, heating 85.53 for the first time, growing 28 each year.8%; Longan Thermoelectricity achieves zero on-grid electricity.3.9 billion kWh, an increase of 34 in ten years.5% for heating 33.88 for the first time, growing by 15 per year.4%.  Liuzhi Power Plant is relatively stable and achieves grid-connected power16.9.6 billion kWh, an increase of 7 in ten years.5%.In the wind power sector, due to the large number of wind resources in the first quarter of 2019, once the on-grid power shifted, the new energy company’s wind power on-grid power was 4.92 billion kWh per decade for ten years.7%.Jinjiang Gas and Electricity Gas has a grid-connected power of 4.8.3 billion kWh per year for ten years17.2%.  The Yangping and Waishan wind farms have been put into operation one after another, and the wind farms under construction are advancing steadily.According to the 重庆耍耍网 company’s announcement on April 2, 2019, the company’s Nanping Yangping 20MW wind farm and Yongchun Waishan 20MW wind farm project have been put into operation.The scale of the company’s wind farm is gradually expanding, which is expected to provide support for the company’s performance.As of the end of 2018, the company approved the scale of the wind farm under construction to reach 1.071GW, of which offshore wind power reached 0.898GW, onshore wind power is 0.173GW.The company’s wind farms under construction have excellent returns, and subsequent grid connection is expected to increase the company’s performance.  Performance forecast: The company is expected to realize revenue 98-2019-2021.26/102.35/108.310,000 yuan, achieving a net profit of 13.66/15.84/18.86 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.1% / 15.9% / 19.0%, corresponding to an 淡水桑拿网 estimate of 10.3/8.9/7.4 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.  Risk reminder: New energy subsidy policy is less than expected; coal prices remain high, and power generation costs increase.

Sanan Optoelectronics (600703): Standing at the starting point of a new round to see Sanan

Sanan Optoelectronics (600703): Standing at the starting point of a new round to see Sanan

Highlights of the report Event description On the evening of October 28, 2019, Sanan Optoelectronics released the “Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. Third Quarterly Report 2019”.

The company achieved operating income of 53 in the first three quarters.

320,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother 11.

5.2 billion yuan, the company achieved operating income in the third quarter alone19.

4.5 billion, net profit attributable to mother 2.

6.9 billion yuan.

Incidents commented that revenue grew month-on-month and inventory stabilized, and the worst phase of the industry will pass.

In general, the LED chip industry entered the peak season in the second and third quarters, and the company achieved revenue of 19 in the third quarter.

4.5 billion, an increase of 17.

24%, combining the third-quarter inventory with the second-quarter inventory that is basically the same (the inventory of Sanan integration business will increase as its inventory volume increases, it is said that the LED chip-related inventory should be basically flat), the company’s business has stabilized possession, the worst stage of the industryWill pass.
The demand for Mini LED is on and the product structure continues to improve.

At present, Mini LED applications are divided into display and backlight. Among them, Mini LED backlight has made rapid progress in the introduction of large-size LCD products. Integrated brand manufacturers (such as Apple, TCL, Konka, Hisense, Asus, etc.) have released related products, and it is expected to be introduced in the future.Medium-sized end products.

In the early days of the emergence of new applications, terminal brands were appropriately cautious in terms of supplier selection, and leading companies with deep industry technology accumulation had priority to benefit.

The integrated circuit business is advancing steadily, and the 厦门夜网 RF, power electronics and optoelectronics business has ample space.

Sanan’s integrated business layout includes radio frequency, power electronics and optoelectronics. The radio frequency and optical chip business will deeply benefit from the historical wave of 4G to 5G upgrades. The value increase will replace the implementation of Davis double-click, and the space is huge; SiC and GaN power electronics productsIn the long run, it is also a disruptive product in the field of high-power energy conservation, and the market space has gradually opened.

As the most powerful compound semiconductor foundry platform in China, San’an has a sound business layout and long-term space.

Changsha Jianxin increased capital in Sanan Electronics, and the pressure on shareholders’ funds has further eased.

At present, the scale of the 北京夜网 shareholders of Sanan Optoelectronics has gradually received financial support from Quanzhou, Xingye International Trust, Hubei Province, Changsha and other parties, and the financial pressure on the interests of major shareholders has gradually eased.

It is expected that the shareholders of Sanan Optoelectronics will further release the pledge and the capital situation will be significantly improved.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 13 respectively.

6.9 billion, 20.

5.7 billion and 28.

20,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

34 yuan, 0.

50 yuan and 0.

69 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

The company ‘s demand for Mini LED products was lower than expected; 2.

IC customer expansion is lower than expected

Country Garden is really at a low level overall due to double performance

Country Garden is really at a low level overall due to double performance

Country Garden is generally really low at the moment Source: Beijing Business Daily Zhou Kejing According to reports, Country Garden CFO Wu Bijun recently publicly stated that Country Garden is currently at a low level and investors will be happy after buying for one year.

However, this column believes that the current merger of Country Garden is not necessarily at a low level. It is low compared to the beginning of this year, but high compared to the beginning of 2017. The growth of Country Garden’s performance in 2017 has more than doubled, which has become the main driving force for Country Garden’s gradual rise.

At present, there is a lot of uncertainty about Country Garden’s performance being able to double again, so it is inappropriate to say that the company has always been at a low level.

  In the stock market, I am afraid that no one can guarantee that the stock is at an absolute low level. After all, although the market operates on its own, there are many sudden factors. The performance of the performance is ultimately the result of a comprehensive combination of aspects. Performance is only a judgement that the listed company is running.Not all indicators.

Taken together, sustainable lows and highs are relative.

For example, is Huarui Wind Power, issued at 90 yuan, constantly falling to 45 yuan?

If it were arithmetic, then investors who bought stocks at this low level even changed significantly again. So it seems that 45 yuan is not a low level.

  Country Garden, a Hong Kong-listed company that has less than 11 manufacturing companies, has grown up to 19.

16 manufacturing, then what about sustainable?

In this column, we still cannot rush into conclusions.

After all, the Country Garden in 2016 is still in the vicinity of 3 replacements. If counting from that time, the Country Garden has gradually expanded by more than 200% in more than two years. It cannot be said that it is at a low level.

  In fact, during the growth of Country Garden from 3 to 19, the growth of the company’s profit has become the basis of the company’s outstanding growth.

The recent decline in Country Garden’s outlook is related to investors’ expectations of Country Garden’s 淡水桑拿网 future profit growth.

In fact, the frequent occurrence of recent security accidents in Country Garden will inevitably delay the construction period and affect the brand image of the company’s products. This is not a good thing for Country Garden with high turnover.

  In addition, it appears from this column that the public opinion of the listed company’s CFO on previous announcements will definitely affect investors’ investment judgments, and it does not rule out that investors directly purchase Country Garden shares based on Wu Bijun’s remarks.

If this is the case, investors feel happy after one year. If they are not happy, are they eligible to predict Wu Bijun?

  More generally, Country Garden is currently approaching the point of time to issue a periodic report. At this time, Wu Bijun publicly “recommends” investors 天津夜网 to buy Country Garden stocks, which will inevitably raise questions about information disclosure violations.

If Country Garden’s interim financial report is really beautiful, is it considered as information that has not been released before?

If the report is not good, is it considered a flicker investor?

  This column believes that now in the Internet era, the words and deeds of listed company executives will constantly affect the company. The executives of the company must be extremely cautious in speaking. If they really want to express their confidence in the company’s bright prospects, it should not be reached.At this point, the level of senior management evaluation without claiming the bottom line promises to cause trouble for themselves, and may also mislead investors’ investment decisions.

Zhejiang Meida (002677) Review Report: Integrated stoves continue to occupy the first and second lines of traditional smoke machines and develop smoothly

Zhejiang Meida (002677) Review Report: Integrated stoves continue to occupy the first and second lines of traditional smoke machines and develop smoothly

(1) On July 30, the 2019 China Household Appliances Industry Semi-annual Report released by the National Household Appliances Industry Information Center shows that in the first half of 2019, the domestic household appliance market ‘s retail sales increased by 412.5 billion yuan in total, and gradually declined2.

1%, the integrated stove industry achieved retail sales of 65 million US dollars, and an annual increase of 52.


(2) On August 6, the 2019 China Integrated Cooker Industry Summit Forum and the White Paper Release Conference of the Integrated Cooker Industry were held at Suning Headquarters in Nanjing.

On the same day, the company’s JJZT-6603 (A6) and A7 integrated stoves passed the review of the China Household Electrical Appliances Research Institute and obtained the “Jiadian” certificate.

(3) According to the Company’s “Investor Relations Activity Record” on August 28, the company entered about 100 Suning KAs in the first half of this year, and it is progressing in an orderly and effective manner in the second half of the year.

(4) The company released the semi-annual report for 2019, and its operating income in the first half of the year7.

0 million yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

80,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.

0%; net profit after deduction is 1.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.


Opinion: The third and fourth tier markets of the integrated stove industry have passed the introduction period, and the first and second tiers are in the rapid growth stage of the introduction period.

(1) As of June 2019, the cumulative domestic sales of traditional range hoods were 8.42 million units, a decrease of 5.

2%; progressive retail volume of 8.26 million units, exceeding the decline of 3.

2%; Progressive retail sales of $ 19.7 billion, down 4 each year.


(2) According to our research on consumption of real estate and home appliances, we expect the “turnkey volume of new homes ①” to decrease by 14 in 2018.

4%, the retail sales of traditional fog machines fell by 7.

7%, the sales in traditional fog machines decreased by 4.


We estimate that the annual growth rate of “new house turnkey volume” in 2019-2021 will be 3 respectively.

1%, -10.

1%, 5.

The growth rate of internal sales of traditional smoke machines is 0%, 6%, and 2%; the growth rate of internal sales of integrated stoves is 25.

3%, 13.

8%, 20.


(3) We predict that the penetration rate of integrated stoves in 2018 will be about 9%, of which the first and second lines are about 7%, and the third and fourth lines are about 10%. We believe that the growth of integrated stoves will continue.

The company’s industry leader is solid, and KA and online channels open up 杭州夜网 room for growth.

(1) According to the company’s announcement, the company added 70 first-tier dealers in the first half of 2019, totaling more than 1,400; 300 new terminal stores, totaling more than 2,500.

According to the company’s establishment, the initial county-level establishment is about 3,000, so the company has at least one doubling space for channel expansion.

(2) The company is accelerating the development of the first- and second-tier markets, of which the KA channel (home appliance chain) is the main breakthrough.

The company’s sales expenses in the first half of the year.

2 ‰, an increase of 81 in ten years.

2%, sales expense ratio 16.

4%, an increase of 5 per year.1pct.

Company advertisements are continuously invested in CCTV, high-speed rail, and provincial TV stations.

As of the first half of 2苏州夜网论坛019, the company has entered more than 100 Suning stores.

We believe that the company’s continued focus on publicity and its leading edge in product power and channel power is conducive to the company’s first- and second-tier development, high-end brand card slots, and market share in the entire market.

(3) The company adopts temporary management of dealers to obtain terminal sales information in a timely manner and reduce intermediate costs.

(4) The company’s e-commerce revenue accounts for about 10% of the total revenue, and the growth rate in the first half of 2019 is more than 80%. We believe that the company’s e-commerce revenue can increase and improve.

(5) We predict that the company’s comprehensive stove market share will be approximately 17 in 2018.


We conservatively estimate that the company’s market share will remain unchanged in the next three years, and the company and the industry segment will grow at the same rate.

We estimate that the company’s integrated stove revenue will be 16 in the next three years.

2, 18.


1 ppm with a growth rate of 27.

8%, 16.

1%, 23%.

Earnings forecasts and estimates We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 29 in 2019-2021.

4%, 17%, 23.

3%, net profit growth rate was 32.

4%, 12.

0%, 24.

3%, EPS is 0.

77, 0.

87, 1.

08 yuan, corresponding to PE18, 16, 13 times.

We estimate it at 22 times the EPS in 2019, and the estimated estimate is 17.

02 yuan, compared with the merger of 2019090613.

There is a 22% increase in the price of 92 yuan, and we maintain the “strongly recommended” level.

Risk Tips 1. If the national housing delivery progress exceeds expectations, the general cigarette machine industry will grow faster than expected again this year; 2. The integrated stove industry is not as fast as expected in occupying the traditional cigarette machine market; 3. Market competition is intensified and the industry’s average price isDownside risks and potential risks to the company’s market share.

Shanghai Airport (600009): Tax-free consumption benefiting from overseas consumption back into new driving force

Shanghai Airport (600009): Tax-free consumption benefiting from overseas consumption back into new driving force

The strategic planning of the “new consumption” era benefits 北京桑拿洗浴保健 from the return of overseas consumption and gradually makes up for the price difference between domestic and foreign goods.

Due to the tax rate and channel price increase, the prices of domestic counters of some international brands and foreign origin prices have conflicting price differences. The emergence of duty-free goods makes up for this difference in domestic and foreign commodity prices.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, the total scale of Chinese residents’ duty-free purchases abroad in 2018 exceeded 1,800 trillion, while China’s duty-free goods in 2018 were about 40 billion U.S. dollars.

In the past year, the outflow of high-end consumption in China has been severe.

  At present, benefiting from the lower tax rate and other benefits, the premium gap between the replacement of high-end brands in China and overseas tax gradually narrows; the gradual relaxation of tax exemption policies (further opening of entry ports at airport ports, etc.), and the crackdown on overseas purchasing will gradually promote overseas consumption.
  Considering that the city’s internal duty-free shops are still in their infancy, most of China’s current tax-free consumption is at airport ports, and Shanghai has benefited significantly as a large international hub airport.

Focus on “rich and free” air outbound passengers.

Airport duty-free shops face a group of customers who have certain spending power and are seeking out-price products.

  Based on past history, China will experience a transition from economical transportation (bus, slow rail) to time-sensitive transportation (airline, rapid rail) after rising residents’ income.

With reference to foreign experience and Chinese data, we believe that the growth rate of outbound tourism will continue to be higher than that of domestic amusement, driving the continuous increase in port tax allowances.

Select high-quality brands, improve service quality, and actively enhance passenger consumption experience.

Airport duty-free shops are mainly based on aromatization and tobacco and alcohol. We expect to focus on the development of department stores in the future; airport retail projects will focus on increasing the conversion of internationally renowned brands; airport catering will take into account multi-level catering needs, based on public demand, Same-city same-same price, dating “Michelin” restaurant to enhance the passenger experience.

The “Pudong Punctuality” Airport Intelligent Collaborative Operation System (A-CDM) was launched, and big data helped passengers travel.

Shanghai Airport improves the ground operation efficiency of the airport through the large data collection and control of safety routines and collaborative decision-making with multiple parties; 佛山桑拿网 data exchange with other domestic airports can effectively improve the on-time rate of flight operations.

  It is estimated that the profit forecast for 2019 and 2020 will remain unchanged at 54 trillion and 5.8 billion, corresponding to a longer growth of 27.

9% and above 6.


The company’s overall consensus corresponds to 26.

7 times and 25.

0 times P / E ratios for 2019 and 2020.

Maintain the outperformed industry rating and target price of 90 yuan, corresponding to 30 times the forecast price-earnings ratio in 2020, with 20% growth potential.

  Risk Aviation demand was less than expected, and tax-exempt income was less than expected.

Depth-Company-Inspur Information (000977): Two major strategies to improve business indicators to consolidate leading advantages

Depth * Company * Inspur Information (000977): Two strategies to improve operating indicators to consolidate leading advantages

The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and achieved revenue of 382 in the first three quarters.

300 million (+13.

8%), net profit attributable to mother 5.

200 million (+39.

1%), net profit after deduction 4

700 million (+37.


The main operating indicators continued to improve, and the gross profit margin rebounded slightly.

With cloud vendors’ capital expenditures likely to pick up and new demand for edge computing driven by 5G, mid-term growth is sustainable.

Maintain BUY rating.

  The main points of the support level are that the performance growth rate is in line with the 40% forecast, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase are significant.

The growth rate of nearly 39% of net profit is in line with our expectations of 40%.

The growth rate far exceeded the 14% growth rate of revenue. The main reason was that the company seized market opportunities and continued to expand its market share. According to IDC statistics, the domestic X86 market share in the second quarter of 2019 increased by 1 from the previous quarter.

6pct to 28.

9%, the second is the improvement of operating efficiency. The increase in categories drives the improvement of gross profit margin and the implementation of cost reduction and efficiency. For example, sales / management / R & D / finance costs YOY are 29% / 40% / 17% /-24%, which are higher than the aboveThe year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply.

  Under the global growth trend of H1, sustainable industry breakthroughs and international channels ensure continued leadership.

The growth rate of the domestic server market in 2019H1 is mainly due to the significant increase in purchases by Internet and public cloud vendors. The overall purchase volume of the top 5 ultra-large-scale Internet customers has shown negative growth. Under this background, the company is expected to continue to lead by industry breakthroughs and international channel expansion.

(1) The growth rate of H1’s financial and manufacturing injections has averagely exceeded 10%. The company has obvious advantages in financial telecommunications and manufacturing, and its gross profit margin is higher than that of cloud servers.

(2) In October, the company reached a strategic cooperation with the three major distributors of European AB Group, ALSO and Duttenhofer, 杭州龙凤体验网 and is committed to achieving further success in the European open market.

Based on the combination of the two major strategies, the company is expected to continue to lead even if the recovery of capital expenditure by cloud vendors is slow.

  Win the first order for China Mobile edge computing and cut into the mass market.

IDC predicts that in 2020, more than 50% of the data will need to be analyzed, processed, and stored at the edge of the network. Operators will be the leading workforce for 5G edge computing investment.

Recently, the NE5260M5 product won the bid of the China Mobile Research Institute’s OTII server equipment procurement project, becoming the first order in the early stage, and subsequent products will continue to enter the mass market of edge computing.

  Estimated for 2019?
Net profit in 2021 is 9.



300 million, EPS is 0.



42 yuan, corresponding to PE is 35/25/18 times.

The leading level is stable, and high growth is still expected. At present, it is estimated that it is still at the bottom of the center, maintaining the buying level.

  Major risks facing rating Cloud vendors’ capital expenditures are less than expected; new product R & D is less than expected

Gemdale Group (600383): Expenses drag down performance scale

Gemdale Group (600383): Expenses drag down performance scale
Gemdale Group has released its third quarter report for 2019 and achieved an operating income of 425.32 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.91%, net profit attributable to mother 54.25 ppm, a 10-year increase3.41%, eps1.2 yuan / share. Scale advancement and steady performance.The current growth rate of the company’s performance is not as large as the scale growth rate: 1. The overall financing environment is tightening, and the increase in the cost of funds and the proportion of consolidated projects due to the increase in the proportion of consolidated projects has increased the proportion of interest that needs to be paid, resulting in expensesThe company ‘s promotion costs and staff costs have improved due to the pressure to overcome de-chemicalization in some cities in the third quarter. Beautiful sales and abundant value.The total contracted amount in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1,418.4 ‰, an increase of 33 per year.7%; cumulative contracted area of 710.30,000 square meters, an increase of 22 per year.44%.The performance is significantly stronger than the cumulative sales growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies from January to September by 15%.At present, the company has ample value reserves and a good layout structure. It is evenly distributed in deep-cultivated high-energy cities and is expected to hit the 200 billion sales mark. Land acquisition continues the core thinking, reserves rich and high-quality future to worry-free.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company obtained a total of 59 cases of land, and the land price reached 483.9.5 billion, down 17 previously.02%; overall new land reserve is about 706.270,000 countries, an increase of 22 a year.2%.From a structural point of view, the idea of strengthening the resource distribution of core cities in the first and second tiers has continued. Leverage levels have fallen and financing advantages have emerged.At the end of the third quarter, the net debt 都市夜网 ratio decreased by 5.4 excellent to 60.15%, although short-term debt pressure has increased by 9.4 to 48.9%, but all are at the level allowed by the industry.At the same time, the company made full use of overseas financing platforms to achieve diversified financing. Under the pressure of the current tightening of industry financing, the diversified advantages of the company’s financing channels help the company to consolidate in the industry adjustment period. Investment rating and profit forecast: We expect the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 2 respectively.14, 2.57 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Real estate forecasts exceed expectations.