Yutong Bus (600066): Market share steadily increased waiting for industry clearing
The company’s recent situation Yutong Bus released the June production and sales report, with monthly sales of 4,550 units, an increase of 13 per year.
2%, of which 1,647 bus sales, a decline of 16 per year.
2%, Chinese passenger sales of 2,249 vehicles, an annual increase of 54.
4%, light passenger sales were 654, an increase of 9 per year.
Cumulative sales in the first half of the year were 25,429 units, an increase of 2 per year.
Comment on sales performance in line with expectations, the product structure is improving.
In the first half of the year, the total sales volume of Yutong’s large and medium-sized customers was 21,578, and the proportion of large customers increased slightly by zero in ten years.
3ppt, the proportion of Chinese customers increased by 2 every year.
We estimate that the sales volume of new energy buses in the first half of the year is about 9,000 units. Due to the impact of rushing to install under the subsidy expectation, the sales performance of the new energy bus industry was weak in the second quarter.
The performance in the first half of the year is in line with expectations, and sales are expected to achieve positive growth. The core depends on the performance in the fourth quarter.
The logic of industry clearing may gradually materialize.
From the perspective of market structure, according to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to May, the CR10 of medium-sized buses increased by 5 respectively.
At 5ppt, the market share of the right-hand companies has increased significantly, and the performance of the top three and four companies has increased significantly.
As for Yutong, sales of large and medium-sized passengers over 7 meters reached 17,686, with a market share of 39.
0%, the highest 佛山桑拿网 level in history, an increase of 4 compared with 2018.
In the segmented market, benefiting from the performance of new energy buses, the market share of the bus market has increased most significantly, while the seat bus market, which already has a high market share, is still breaking through.
Entering the final countdown to the decline of compensation, the bus companies have basically reached the critical point of profitability, and low-price rush orders are expected to decline, and the industry layout has ushered in a marginal improvement.
From the highest point of view, the demand for passenger cars is still affected by the increase in the number of seats sold, and compensation for changes in declines. In the short term, the internal increase is still in school buses, RVs and mid-to-high-end product segments.And whether the export market can break through.
From the perspective of the company budget, the absolute amount of compensation for the decline of the slope can be replaced, and Yutong can achieve a steady increase in gross profit margin by reducing costs and upgrading prices.
In the longer term, vigorously develop key technologies that help Yutong develop and research, and are best able to respond to domestic passenger car demand upgrades and overseas mid- to high-end market expansion in the first time.
For B’s business, we believe that the core stock selection logic is to find leading companies in a segmented industry with a relatively better competitive landscape.
Maintain the company’s outperform industry rating, maintain 2019 and 2020 profit forecasts, maintain a target price of 18 yuan (17 times P / E in 2019), which is 31 compared with the current one.
The impact of the risk subsidy decline on profitability exceeded expectations; the industry’s clearance rate was slower than expected.